NAPLES / FT MYERS HOUSING 2Q16: 20 Consecutive Quarters of Growth: Annual New Home Starts Up 13.7% YoY

Annual New Home Starts up 13.7% YoY & 2.7% QoQ, marking 20 consecutive quarters of growth.

Annual Closings Up 25% YoY & 8.2% QoQ, delivering gains for 17 consecutive quarters.

Collier County continued to show strong demand with annual closings up 45% YoY and annual starts increasing for 29 consecutive quarters.

Metrostudy’s 2Q16 survey of the housing market in the Naples/Ft. Myers region shows there were 1,286 quarterly starts, an increase of 10.9% from 1Q16 and up 11.1% from 2Q15. The annual starts pace increased 2.7% over the previous quarter to 4,959, and is up 13.7 % YoY. The annual starts pace in Naples/Ft. Myers has increased for 20 consecutive quarters. Closings in 2Q16 totaled 1,131, down 8 % from the previous quarter, but up 43 % from 2Q15. The annual closing rate of 4,474 was up 8.2% from 1Q16 and 25% higher than one year ago. Naples/Ft. Myers has now seen quarterly closings rise for 17 consecutive quarters.

“The Naples/Ft. Myers market remained strong, as annual starts delivered 20 consecutive quarters of growth and annual closings have now increased for 17 consecutive quarters,” said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s Regional Director in South Florida. “However, softer sales this spring has resulted in some communities carrying excess inventory into the second quarter, and the use of incentives to move inventory has become common in the market.”

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Vacant, developed lot inventory decreased 0.9% from the previous quarter, to 11,623 lots, but lot deliveries increased 45% to 1,186, compared to the first quarter.

Lee County – Lee County is comprised of the Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are included in our research, but scattered lot activity is not. Quarterly starts numbered 670, up 15% from 1Q16, while quarterly closings of 589 declined 14% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate of 2,502 was up 9% from 2Q15 and the annual closings rate of 2,279 was up 11% from the same quarter in 2015. Housing inventory totaled 1,380 units in 2Q16 and remains below equilibrium in Lee County at 7.3 months of supply. Nine months of supply is considered normal. The supply of VDL inventory declined 3% QoQ to 6,554, a 31-months’ supply. There were 664 lot deliveries in the quarter, up 14% from the previous quarter and up 28% YoY. Future lot inventory was up 21% YoY to 37,959.

Collier County – Collier County is comprised of the Naples-Marco Island MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Collier County are included in this research but the scattered lot activity, primarily in Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates, is not. Quarterly starts increased to 616 by 6.4% from 1Q16, while quarterly closings dropped 1.1% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate of 2,457 was up 19% from 2Q15, and annual closings of 2,195 were up 45% from 2Q15’ s pace. The annual starts rate now has risen for 29 consecutive quarters, but this quarter’s paltry 0.3% increase QoQ suggests this streak may soon end. Housing Inventory totaled 1,967 units, slightly elevated at 10.8 months of supply, a higher-than-normal level due in part to labor constrains and the above-average size of the homes. VDL inventory decreased 1.9% QoQ to 4,993, a 24 months of supply. Lot deliveries surged 84% from the previous quarter to 711. Future lot deliveries decreased 2.4% from 1Q16 to 28,934.

Source: Metrostudy

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